Friday, May 21, 2010

[Community Commentary] - USDA Rural Housing Update: Fundings Dry Up Across the Country

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Message: The only true 100% loan program left for non veterans has used up its funding. Pretty good article.

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USDA Rural Housing Update: Fundings Dry Up Across the Country

Posted to: Community Commentary
Thursday, May 20, 2010 11:04 AM

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In March we learned that USDA Rural Housing funds were expected to run dry by the end of April

Here is a quote from the story:

"Every year USDA runs out of money for their fundings and normally you are not affected by this however, this year is very different. The USDA Section 502 guaranteed Rural Housing Program will have exhausted there 2010 fiscal funds by the end of April. The USDA would need to receive about $150 million in funding to be able to continue funding loans for the rest of fiscal year 2010."

USDA Section 502 Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loans are primarily used to help low-income individuals or households purchase homes in rural areas. Funds can be used to build, repair, renovate or relocate a home, or to purchase and prepare sites, including providing water and sewage facilities. There is no required down payment. The lender must determine repayment feasibility, using ratios of repayment (gross) income to PITI and to total family debt.

You’re probably asking yourself how it is possible for the USDA to fund all affordable housing demand with only $150 million dollars.

This is possible because the USDA is not the actual “lender,” instead the USDA “guarantees” loans by charging borrowers an upfront fee, similar to upfront mortgage insurance premium charged by the FHA. The upfront fee for a Section 502 loan is 3.5%. This loan guarantee fee was not paid by the borrower at closing though. Instead 2% of the 3.5% fee was financed into the deal so it can be paid over the course of the loan. The remaining 1.5% of the 3.5% was covered by USDA government subsidies.

This is where the "funds running dry" problem comes back into the picture.

By early May, high demand for the Rural Development loan product had rapidly exhausted Section 502 subsidy funding to the point where it was believed the program would shut down for the remainder of the government fiscal year (ends on Sept.30).  As a result lenders were forced to stop accepting USDA Section 502 loan applications. This effectively cut off affordable housing financing to low income consumers who live in rural areas. 

Then on May 11, 2010 we received good news from the USDA's Office of Rural Development. The Guaranteed Rural Housing Program would once again accept loan applications and issue approvals! Lenders reacted quickly to the announcement by re-opening their doors to new USDA guaranteed loan applications. Unfortunately there was a caveat ...all new conditional commitments must be modified to read:

Loan approvals are “subject to the availability of funds and Congressional authority to charge a 3.5% guarantee fee for purchase loans and a 2.25% guarantee fee for refinance loans”.

To put it simply,  the USDA would continue to issue Section 502 Loan Guarantees when the Congressional vote was final.  All indications were that the vote was just a formality

Rich Van Tassel President of Royal Oaks Building Group says; “We (home builders) were under the impression that the heavy lifting relative to getting additional USDA funding had been completed by both the US Senate and US House of Representatives.  We understood it to be a formality for congress to pass a bill that made the USDA Guaranteed Rural Housing Program self sustaining and re-capitalized the program to not cause a hiccup in getting mortgages for our buyers at no extra expense to the US taxpayer.”

Well it wasn't a given. The legislation has not been passed yet.

On May 12, 2010 the USDA's Office fo Rural Development issued an announcement recalling and voiding the guidance offered the day before on May 11, 2010. Lenders who had just resumed taking new Section 502 loan applications were forced to once again shut their doors to Affordable Rural Development loan programs. I would like to share that press release with you but it has been removed from the Rural Development website, along with the May 11th announcement.

WHY?

Here is the legislative update on H.R.5017: Rural Housing Preservation and Stabilization Act of 2010....

Latest Major Action: 4/28/2010 Referred to Senate committee.
Status: Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. 

The new legislation essentially removes the 1.5% government subsidy and puts the entire 3.5% guarantee fee on the shoulders of the borrower, but some politicians think the guarantee fee should be larger.  As a result the bill is still stuck in committee, the USDA is not issuing new loan approvals,  and lenders are not taking new loan applications.

There are several issues here...

  1. First time home buyers fueled the recent uptick in housing demand. With it now expired, do we really want to remove a program that is intended to attract the very same potential homebuyers who supported the real estate and mortgage business over the past 12 months?
  2. An increase in fees would wreak havoc on high cost calculations. READ MORE
  3. While the likelihood of this bill passing remains very high, there is good reason for the industry to be frantic about the timing of its passage: CONGRESS GOES ON MEMORIAL DAY VACATION FROM MAY 31 TO JUNE 4. If a the legislation does not pass before then, we would have to wait at least another week for the program to reopen. This would be critical time wasted for many prospective home buyers who need to utilize Section 502 funding and still take advantage of the tax credit.  Did you know that USDA loans are unwritten twice? Once by the investor and once by USDA. The Section 502 qualification process is not short! Wasting a week would surely push some USDA loan closings past the June 30 tax credit cut off date.

WE NEED THIS LEGISLATION PASSED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND WE NEED IT PASSED THE RIGHT WAY. 

If you want to see this program brought back we need to urge our lawmakers and our President to appropriate the funds to bring this program back now.


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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Friday, April 16, 2010

[MND NewsWire] - HAMP: Improved Conversion Rate Helps Boost Permanent Loan Mods in March

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HAMP: Improved Conversion Rate Helps Boost Permanent Loan Mods in March

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, April 15, 2010 8:41 AM

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Metrics for the Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) improved substantially during March according to data released late Wednesday by the Treasury Department.  The foreclosure prevention program, a joint effort by Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, has been widely criticized for its effectiveness in moving distressed borrowers into permanent loan modifications.

During the March, however, over 60,000 homeowners enrolled in the three month trial period required by the program were converted into permanent modifications. This brings the cumulative total of permanent loan modifcations to 230,801.  The March conversions represent a 15 percent increase over the 53,000 accomplished in February and a 3.5-fold rise in permanent modifications since the first of the year. An additional 108,000 permanent modifications are pending; most are awaiting approval from the borrower.

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In terms of the overall conversion rate, 16.1 percent of all offers extended have been converted to permanent loan modifications. Much improved from last month's rate of 12.6 percent. When measuring performance against the number of HAMP trial offers that have actually been accepted, 19.8 percent of homeowners who have completed the 3-month period have been converted to a permanent modification.  Again, much better than the 15.6 percent conversion rate reported in February.

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The number of homeowners entering the program, however, is declining as might reasonably be expected after the initial flood of applicants.  There were 57,000 new entrants into the program in March compared to 72,000 in February.  A total of 1.44 offers for modifications have been extended to borrowers and 1.17 million homeowners have started the trial modification program.

There was a large number of trial modifications cancelled during the month.  Since the program started in the spring of 2009, there have been a total of 155,000 cancellations, 66,500 of which were recorded in March.  The report provided no explanation for this number.  A total of 2,879 permanent modifications have been cancelled compared to 1,400 reported last month.  

Under HAMP, borrowers are offered a five year modification of their existing mortgage based on a debt to income ratio that cannot exceed 31 percent.  The servicers who administer the program can offer an extension of the loan term, a reduced interest rate, and/or a reduction of the principal balance.   100 percent of the modifications to date have included an interest rate reduction, 39 percent have involved an extension of the term of the loan and 28 percent have had some type of principal reduction or forbearance.   Servicers have been reluctant to offer forbearance to borrowers and HAMP has recently announced a new component of the program to encourage this method of modification.

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The HAMP report estimates that approximately 6 million residential mortgages are currently 60 days or more in arrears and that approximately 1.7 million of these are eligible for the HAMP program.  Servicers are encouraged to contact borrowers to request information regardless of their apparent eligibility.  To date servicers have sent out over four million solicitation letters.  

CitiMortgage and GMAC continue to be the most active participants in the program; both have nearly 50 percent of their estimated eligible borrowers enrolled in trial or permanent modifications.

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The reasons for delinquency as reported by the borrowers have remained relatively consistent over the life of the program; 59.1 percent report that their hardship was caused by a loss of income (a slight increase from 57.4 percent in February), 10.5 say it is excessive obligations and 2.8 percent report their delinquency was principally caused by the illness of the principal borrower. Combined with the fact that 44.1 percent of the 6.5 million unemployed Americans have been out of work for longer than six months, this statistic implies the true test of HAMP's success will be whether or not permanent loan modifications are able to avoid re-default.

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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Monday, April 5, 2010

[MND NewsWire] - Pending Home Sales Confirm Increase in Buyer Demand Ahead of Tax Credit Expiration

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Pending Home Sales Confirm Increase in Buyer Demand Ahead of Tax Credit Expiration

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, April 05, 2010 1:42 PM

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The National Association of Realtors released Pending Home Sales data today.

A sale is listed as "pending" when a contract to purchase an existing home has been signed but the transaction has not closed. The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly pending home sales parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

From the release:

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January, and remains 17.3 percent above February 2009 when it was 83.2. The data reflects contracts signed, not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months after the home sales contract is signed.

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Regionally, the Midwest saw the biggest month over month uptick while the West extended its losing streak to five months.

  • The Northeast rose 9.0 percent to 77.7 and is 18.9 percent higher than February 2009
  • In the Midwest the index jumped 21.8 percent to 97.9 and is 18.7 percent above a year ago
  • In the South increased 9.2 percent to an index of 107.0 and is 17.5 percent higher than February 2009.
  • The West  fell 4.8 percent to 98.0 but is 14.6 percent above a year ago.

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Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist says:

“Anecdotally, we’re hearing about a rise of activity in recent weeks with ongoing reports of multiple offers in more markets, so the March data could demonstrate additional improvement from buyers responding to the tax credit,”

I am hearing the same anecdotal evidence the NAR is receiving. READ MORE

The chart below illustrates how Pending Home Sales (contracts signed) are a forward looking indicator of Existing Home Sales. The 8.2 percent rise in contracts signed implies we should see a modest increase in Existing Home Sales in the months to come, as long as there are no "hiccups" in the loan qualifying process that is...

I should point out that the modest rise in mortgage rates which has occured over the past two weeks will push a portion of March's Existing Home Sales into April.

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Yun adds:

“The rise in buyer contact activity may signal the early stages of a second surge of home sales this spring. The healthy gain hints home prices are continuing to flatten....We need a second surge to meaningfully draw down inventory and definitively stabilize home values.”

Plain and Simple: this is a key point in time for housing and the macroeconomic outlook. If housing is unable to gain recovery momentum before the tax credit expires, where will demand come from afterward?

READ MORE


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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Friday, March 26, 2010

Default News Insider- Take Three: Will Congress Extend the Home Buyer Tax Credit?

Check out this post: http://defaultnewsinsider.com/2010/02/take-three-will-congress-extend-the-hom...
Daryl Hadd
Sr. Loan Officer Direct: 602-361-4110
E-Fax: 1-877-298-2203
Website & Online application: www.darylhadd.com
Connect with me on Facebook

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Confidentiality Statement: This email may contain attorney-client privileged or confidential information. It is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s). If you have received this transmission in error, immediately notify us by telephone at 818-981-0606 and return the original message to us at Prospect Mortgage, 15301 Ventura Blvd.,Suite D300,Sherman Oaks, CA 91403 via the United States Postal Service.

Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Friday, March 12, 2010

[MND NewsWire] - USDA Rural Housing Funds to Run Dry by April. Lenders Already Dropping the Program

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Message: Rural loans losing funding. The last true zero down conventional loan going Bye Bye

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USDA Rural Housing Funds to Run Dry by April. Lenders Already Dropping the Program

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, March 12, 2010 12:04 PM

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USDA Section 502 loans are primarily used to help low-income individuals or households purchase homes in rural areas. Funds can be used to build, repair, renovate or relocate a home, or to purchase and prepare sites, including providing water and sewage facilities. There is no required down payment. The lender must determine repayment feasibility, using ratios of repayment (gross) income to PITI and to total family debt.

John Rodgers called my attention to the following bulletin released by the USDA:

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This message is to notify you that program funding for the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program will likely be exhausted by the end of April, 2010.

Once funding is exhausted, the Agency will not issue Conditional Commitments “subject to receipt of appropriated funds.”  This is because it is not certain when additional funding will be available. 

Limited funding may become available for disaster areas declared in 2008, or in disaster areas declared for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.  Limited funding may also become available as prior Agency commitments are de-obligated, however, such funding will be very limited. 

We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause you.  Should you have any questions, you may contact the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Division at (202)720-1452.

Rodgers writes:

Every year USDA runs out of money for their fundings and normally you are not affected by this however, this year is very different. The USDA Section 502 guaranteed Rural Housing Program will have exhausted there 2010 fiscal funds by the end of April. The USDA would need to receive about 150 million in funding to be able to continue funding loans for the rest of fiscal year 2010.

In past years USDA has appropriated funds from other areas to make up for the shortfall in funding dollars giving lenders the oppurtunity to continue to fund USDA loans.

Why is this year any different then past years? USDA is removing the “subject to receipt of appropriated funds” from their conditional commitments meaning there is no guarantee that lenders will be able to guarantee the loan and fund it.

Why are they doing this? The money usually runs out around the end of the government’s fiscal year which is September 30th and USDA basically tells everyone we’ll get you’re funding commitments either this year or next. Since the money is running out so early in the fiscal year USDA is not sure where the money will come from therefore will not put “subject to receipt of appropriated funds” on their conditional commitments. Last year the money ran out in March but the stimulus provided the gap funding to carry the program thru to the end of the year but this year there is no stimulus money.

What can I do as a Realtor, Builder, Developer or loan officer? You need to contact your US Congressman, US Senator, professional lobby and employer to get them working on a solution because if this happens many homeowners will be left out on their loan closing because it simply won’t happen.

The USDA loan program is a wonderful program for Rural America. The program is ran very efficiently and the default rate on USDA loans are much lower than FHA or other financing programs.

Please take action today.

-----------------------------

Well....lenders have already begun cutting off the program. Both Wells Fargo and BB&T stopped taking USDA Rural Development loan commitments TODAY. Others will soon follow....


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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Feelin Good

Some days are perfect!   Work has been so productive and exciting.  I passed my federal loan originator test.  My to do list for my loan originator license is complete.  I am so happy that I am officially done studying for a bit.  I really learned a lot from the testing.  Back to focusing on what I do best consult people on their mortgage.    

Daryl Hadd
Sr. Loan Officer

Cell 602-361-4110  E-Fax 877-298-2203

Apply Online @ www.DarylHadd.com

  

FOLLOW ME ON FACEBOOK/TWITTER/ LINKEDIN  

                       

 

     

 


Confidentiality Statement: This email may contain attorney-client privileged or confidential information. It is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s). If you have received this transmission in error, immediately notify us by telephone at 818-981-0606 and return the original message to us at Prospect Mortgage, 15301 Ventura Blvd.,Suite D300,Sherman Oaks, CA 91403 via the United States Postal Service.

Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Thursday, February 25, 2010

[Mortgage and Real Estate Video News] - Realty Check Update

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Message: Monthly Update on Real Estate via CNBC

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Realty Check Update

Posted to: Mortgage and Real Estate Video News
Thursday, February 25, 2010 2:51 PM

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CNBC's Diana Olick has an update on the real estate market.


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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Untitled

Interpreting Housing
Economic Indicators

Analysts, policy makers and investors closely follow economic indicators that track the condition of the housing market. Here’s some background information on these important indicators.

Housing Starts
Housing starts is considered the most important report on the housing sector due to its large ripple effect in the economy when buyers purchase appliances and household furnishings. Construction of single-family homes accounts for about 85% of the industry. Work on multi-family units makes up the rest of the market and is considered highly volatile.

Home Sales
New homes sales account for less than 10% of the market. They are tabulated when the contract is signed. This is different from the way that existing home sales are tallied. They’re counted when the transaction closes and thus reflect contracts signed a month or two earlier. Existing home sales account for more than 80% of the market.

Another important home sales figure is the pending home sales index. This is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. Because it usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale, it’s considered a leading indicator.

Housing Price Indices
There are two housing price indices: the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) index. The FHFA index is a national measure that tracks houses bought with mortgages purchased by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and excludes many of the foreclosure sales and properties bought with non-conventional mortgages. Homes with these loans did not experience the sharp rise and subsequent decline in prices throughout the last decade and represent a more stable pricing index.

In contrast, the S&P/Case-Shiller report is focused on large metropolitan areas and includes distressed properties and those bought with non-conventional loans such as jumbo mortgages. These home prices tend to be much more volatile.

Daryl Hadd
Sr. Loan Officer

Cell 602-361-4110  E-Fax 877-298-2203

Apply Online @ www.DarylHadd.com

  

FOLLOW ME ON FACEBOOK/TWITTER/ LINKEDIN  

                       

 

     

 


Confidentiality Statement: This email may contain attorney-client privileged or confidential information. It is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s). If you have received this transmission in error, immediately notify us by telephone at 818-981-0606 and return the original message to us at Prospect Mortgage, 15301 Ventura Blvd.,Suite D300,Sherman Oaks, CA 91403 via the United States Postal Service.

Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Sunday, February 21, 2010

[MND NewsWire] - MBA Delinquency Survey Shows Signs of Stabilization. Progress Depends on Labor Market

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MBA Delinquency Survey Shows Signs of Stabilization. Progress Depends on Labor Market

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, February 19, 2010 12:50 PM

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The Mortgage Bankers Association released the National Delinquency Survey for Q4 2009 today. Total mortgage delinquency rates, seasonally adjusted, were down 17 basis points during the fourth quarter, but up year-over-year by 159 basis points.

9.47 percent of all mortgages on one- to four-family homes are now in some state of delinquency.

 

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While that was the headline on the press release accompanying the results of the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey, the real news was the 16 basis point drop in new delinquencies recorded during the 4th quarter.   

In a telephone press conference accompanying release of the survey this morning, Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist said that delinquencies in the 30 day plus "bucket" traditionally represent the largest category of troubled loans as many people have short term problems, quickly recover and bring their loans current. 

In the present scenario, that is not the case. The number of loans 90+ days in arrears is now the largest category of delinquency and growing, the MBA believes the drop in new delinquencies may be a sign "we are beginning to work our way out of the problem." 

The timing of this drop, Brinkman pointed out, is especially significant as the fourth quarter usually sees an increase in the 30+ bucket because of seasonal factors such as the holiday season and the arrival of the first heating bills.  Only a few times since MBA has been keeping records has there been a 3rd to 4th quarter decline "and never as large as this one." The 4th quarter number follows a 22 point decline in the 3rd quarter. This was also a drop of 22 basis points from 4th quarter 2008 figures.

Loans in the 60+ day bucket were down 4 basis points, the second consecutive quarter that category had shrunk.  

Long term delinquencies were 71 basis points higher than in the 3rd quarter and 209 basis points higher than the year before and now represent 30 percent of all loans.

The drop in the 30 day bucket was consistent across all loans as was the growth in longer term arrearages.  The latter, Brinkmann said, is paired with a drop in foreclosure starts as many loans in the 90+ bucket are in some type of modification program such as HAMP.  Concrete figures are not available, he said, but it is clear that borrowers are staying in that bucket longer than has historically happened. Not only are loans not moving as quickly into foreclosure status because of these programs, but some people are probably also working their way out of delinquency but haven't quite gotten current.

He pointed to a nearly identical parallel between new and continued delinquencies and employment figures.  Persons who have been out of work for more than 6 months represent 41 percent of all unemployed while new unemployment claims have been steadily dropping - they are now down about a third since their peak in March 2009.  Long term and short term mortgage delinquencies have exactly mirrored this pattern.

“The pattern of mortgage delinquencies now very much follows the pattern of unemployment.  Just as short-term delinquencies have fallen during the latter part of 2009, first-time claims for unemployment insurance have declined by about a third since their peak in March 2009.  Just as long-term delinquencies now dominate total mortgage delinquencies, long-term unemployment now dominates the total unemployment number.  People who have been unemployed for six months or more now constitute over 40 percent of the total unemployed, the highest share in the history of the unemployment survey.  In addition, over the last several months we have seen a large number of people simply drop out of the work force, many who are discouraged about being able to find work.  Until the issue of this large segment of long-term unemployed is resolved, many of the longer-term mortgage delinquencies will remain a problem with a strong likelihood of turning into foreclosures,” Brinkmann said.

Only a few states are really driving delinquency and foreclosure statistics. Nevada continues to have the highest overall delinquency rates at 14.92 percent followed by Mississippi (14.69 percent) and Georgia (13.53 percent).  Leading in foreclosure inventory are Florida (13.44 percent), Nevada (9.76) percent, and Arizona (6.07 Percent.)  The highest rates of foreclosure starts are found in Nevada (3.04 percent), Florida (2.41 percent) and Arizona (2.18 percent.)

Brinkmann was asked to comment on the possible effect of President Obama's newly announced program to pump $1.5 billion into housing agencies in five states, California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Michigan to fund programs for people who are unemployed or underwater with their mortgages. He said he had not had a chance to study the program but that the current problems are not structural mortgage problems, they are employment relatedREAD MORE

Subprime adjustable rate mortgages had a 90+ day delinquency rate compared to 16.10 in the third quarter and 11.60 percent one year earlier. Subprime fixed rate mortgages increased from 11.30 percent in the third quarter to 13.04 percent.  One year earlier that 90 day rate was 7.43 percent.  Prime ARM mortgages had a delinquency rate of 7.84 percent compared to 6.63 percent the previous quarter and 4.74 one year earlier and prime 2.91 percent of prime FRMs were over 90 days delinquent compared to 2.34 percent in the third quarter and 1.20 percent in the 4th quarter of 2008.  Delinquent FHA loans increased 50 basis points to 5.85 percent in the fourth quarter.  The rate was 4.55 percent one year earlier.

Brinkmann said he did not expect that problems resulting from option mortgage resets were going to be "the tidal wave that was expected".  Many of the people who had those mortgages are thought to have refinanced already and some people defaulted before their loans reset.  A lot of option loans have already reset so those people may be included in present foreclosure statistics or they may be paying their loans. 

The Federal Reserve's rate increase announced yesterday was generally anticipated by the financial community, he said, and he did not expect it would have any immediate effect on mortgage rates.  The termination of the Federal Reserve's bond purchase program will have a bigger impact and he expects that mortgage rates will begin to rise gradually in April. READ MORE

 

 


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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

[MND NewsWire] - S&P: Shadow Inventory Still a Concern. Reason to Extend Fed's MBS Program?

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S&P: Shadow Inventory Still a Concern. Reason to Extend Fed's MBS Program?

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, February 16, 2010 3:58 PM

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Standard & Poors today released "The Shadow Inventory Of Troubled Mortgages Could Undo U.S. Housing Price Gains".

Noting that the Case Shiller/S&P Home Price Index had risen 3 percent since hitting its low in May of last year, today's report speculated that the increase may have been the result of the temporary reduction in foreclosures. However, it says that many servicers have nearly run out of plausible candidates for loan modifications and will find that many loans cannot be salvaged.

What S&P calls a "shadow inventory" may take as much as 33 months to clear at the current sales rate.  This is a conservative estimate according to S&P as it includes only those loans that are currently delinquent and does not take into account current and performing loans that may get into trouble in the months ahead.  This increased inventory indicates that home prices may fall again.  An S&P spokesperson said that loan servicers are increasingly looking to short sales as a solution.

The Wall Street Journal reported today that current loan modification efforts may be more of a delaying action than a panacea for the epidemic of foreclosures that has swept the nation.

The Journal said that two studies, one conducted for John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Inc. and the second by Standard & Poors Financial Services, LLC, anticipate that a large percentage of currently delinquent mortgages will eventually be foreclosed, painting a picture of continued excess inventory and a renewed downward pressure on housing prices.

The Burns study estimates that, of the estimated 7.7 million home loans that are currently delinquent, about 5 million will eventually be foreclosed or otherwise forced onto the market over the next few years.  These homes would add to the already large inventory of homes listed for sale, especially in four states that have been especially foreclosure-plagued.  The report names five cities in the Nevada, Arizona, California, and Florida where, if Burns estimates are correct, there could be backlogs of homes that would take 15 to 27 months to absorb. The increased national inventory would require 10 months to sell.  At the end of December FHA put the current national inventory at an eight months supply and falling.  

At the end of December servicers participating in the Treasury Department's Making Home Ownership Affordable (HAMP) program reported that about 3.4 million residential loans in their portfolios were 60 days or more delinquent.  About 900,000 of those are enrolled in trial modification programs, but as we have reported a number of times, the few permanent modifications arising from these trials - about 66,000 by the end of December - are a cause of serious concern. 

Another FHA report issued in January showed that the rescission rate on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's loan modification efforts was around 60 percent.  While there had been some marginal improvements in the rate of re-defaults among more recent modifications, taken together the two reports give some credence to the two reports.   

MND's Adam Quinones comments...

If anyone is searching for a glimmer of hope that the Fed's MBS program is extended...the above issue is one of your best chances. Remember what the Fed keeps telling us: 

"The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets."

While we remain skeptical that "shadow inventory" will actually be dumped on the market all at once by banks, we must remain respectful of the effects that unsuccessful loan modifications could have on the housing market. A spike in housing supply, for any reason, would be damaging to the marginal stabilization and progress made in housing over the summer months of 2009. But again, we are still somewhat optimistic that a home supply "spike" will not occur as a result of increased foreclosure activity. READ MORE

If you happen to be one of those folks who believes the Fed's MBS Program should be extended...I ask you this question: Are you cutting off your nose just to spite your face?

If the Fed was forced to extend the MBS purchase program, wouldn't it imply some key element of the housing market equation was too weak to be removed from life support?

Unless you believe that mortgage rates are going to skyrocket after the Fed exits the TBA MBS market, it seems like we face bigger problems. I know low mortgage rates were the biggest reason for business in 2009, but that won't be the case in 2010. Those borrowers, the ones who qualify, already took advantage of low rates. Originators will need a new source of business in 2010. Purchases are the immediate loan type that comes to mind. (redundent at this point)

If the purchase market fails, it wont be the fault of high mortgage rates. It will be the result of a lack of credit worthy borrowers. 

Consumer demand side support will be crucial if housing is to extend any progress that has been made in the last 6 months and unfortunately, there are several factors moderating growth in consumer demand.

Damaged consumer credit profiles need time for repair. This means a stable job will be required to ensure consistent payments are made and credit is properly mended. After that, total debt service payment can't be over 45% of total income. Jobs needed.

The job issue hits home extra hard in housing. Not only do consumers need jobs to qualify for a new mortgage, they need jobs to stay up to date on current mortgage obligations. All appers to be dependent upon EMPLOYMENT! Shadow inventory, consumer demand, and home prices.

Instead of spending money on the extension of the Fed's MBS purchases (in an already SLOW market), maybe the housing industry should be hoping for structural stimulus at the heart of the problem: job creation and credit repair. Low rates only go so far, we need credit profile healthy consumers!

READ HOW THIS AFFECTS MBS MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND TECHNICALS


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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Friday, February 12, 2010

[MBS Commentary] - MBS WEEKLY: Don't Expect to See 2009 Rates in 2010

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MBS WEEKLY: Don't Expect to See 2009 Rates in 2010

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, February 12, 2010 4:33 PM

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 A long weekend lies ahead in which much may...or... may not occur. Seems like a good time for an "official announcement" from abroad doesn't it? 

The majority of markets are out of office...

We are closed on Monday for President's Day. Mainland China is out from Monday to Friday for Lunar New Year while Hong Kong is detached until Wednesday. Korea = no markets on Monday. Japan is open but Brazil gets a pass for three days of CARNIVAL. Canada has Family Day. They're closed Monday. India is out for Mahashivratri today. The CAC is open in Paris and so is the DAX in Frankfurt. The French only get three days off...all year!

Guess who else is closed: GREECE! for Ash Monday.

Such an "official announcement" from abroad will be viewed as friendly by stock traders. With that in mind, perhaps officials will save any releases for a time when equity bulls were in attendance to push the BID button. This raises a speculative eyebrow for a rates trader...

The stock lever, although detached at times, has generally been a decent guidance giver for rates lately.  If a concrete rescue plan is offered by EU officials over the weekend or on Monday, when the majority of the marketplace's attention is engaged elsewhere....it would help soften the blow of an equity recovery rally induced  bear steepener in the bond market (higher "rate sheet influential" benchmark yields).

If "official" good news is fed to the press when the US market and others are intently watching their screens on Tuesday...the knee jerk could be violent. "FLIGHT TO SAFETY" funds, currently allocated in risk averse TSY bills and notes, would be sold in size.  This would push yields across the curve out of recent ranges...MBS prices would plummet and rebate would be reduced. (Should I put flattener back on?).  This is the expected initial reaction at least

This of course assumes "ITS A TRADER'S WORLD" is still in effect. (It is)

Since we are still not willing to concede that stocks are done rallying, you should know that we are operating under the assumption that the most recent equity down cycle trade is a hiccup in a broader, LONG term recovery process.

Hiccups are to be expected though.  We will experience periods of volatile data, we will witness nervous reactions to unexpected headline events.  Because investor confidence is still shaky, panic will be allowed to spread quickly. In these times "SELL NOW ASK LATER"  will be the preferred trading tactic. But in the BIG PICTURE, while recovery progress may be slow, the worst will still have been avoided. Life will go on. 

Dont get me wrong here....we dont think stocks are a runaway freight train, we just dont expect a massive retracement. This partially explains why our general outlook for benchmark rates is....generally bearish.

That doesn't mean all hell is about to break lose on the yield curve though. Just as we rely upon the "WORST CASE SCENARIO WAS AVOIDED" perception to be an explanation for optimistic equity behavior, we lean on it as supportive backing for an extension of the RATES RANGE TRADE.

The idea of "the worst case scenario was avoided"  is being broadcast loudly through the cautious actions of the Federal Reserve. Their defensive posture forces us to consistently reconsider our perceptions of economic reality...something especially painful for members of the housing industry. But this reminds us that we're just barely progressing off of an historic contraction in economic activity.  It puts the marketplace on the defensive at all times and helps maintain stable demand for risk averse fixed income assets...a key to the mortgage rates equation.

Plain and Simple:  Because the overall economic environment is cloudy and the Federal Reserve is still quite cautious, investors will remain defensive, which will prevent benchmark Treasury yields from moving significantly higher.  On the flip side, equity bulls will rely on "THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WAS AVOIDED" perception as a reason to speculate that long term "buy low, sell high" investment strategies will be profitable. This will help stocks maintain positive progress instead of retracing back to "worst case scenario" lows. This risk taking attitude combined with a slowly recovering economy (anything but drastically worse) will prevent benchmark 10s from revisting the days of old when 10s held between 3.27 and  3.51%.  The rates of 2009 look to be a thing of the past.

This is the first part of the mortgage rates equation. READ ABOUT THE REST OF THE EQUATION

And now, MG will take it away with the pictures for my thousand or so words...

---------------------

Thanks AQ... I have a few words myself, but not too many...  Basically, the following charts will alternate between MBS and Treasuries and should combine to support the notion that rates in 2010 will not be the rates 2009, and despite operating with the 10yr tsy in the 3.50's last week, we certainly have not seen any evidence to suggest this is a better than random probability for the future.  In fact, it's probably worse....

 Starting simply enough, the following two charts will give a view of this week in MBS and tsys.  Prices are generally lower and yields are higher. Note the 101-00 inflection level on the FN 4.5.

[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]


[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]

 With these two hourly charts, things get quite a bit more intense and suggestive.  First MBS...

There, again, is a readily visible inflection point just over 101-00.  We can actually see this holding off the selling in Nov and Dec as support, and proving to be tough resistance in late January.  In this zoomed out view, we can clearly see the breakout of early February failed (at least for now...)

[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]

This is even worse... 

In the TSY chart below, there are two big negatives for the rate outlook. The red circles show a clear bounce on support around 3.69, but after moving much higher this week, that same trendline now holds as RESISTANCE.  Beyond that, 3.60 looks like a nearly impossible level to meaningfully break so far this year...  If we can break it, something will have to change.

[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]

 Now zooming out even more, the FN 4.5 chart below  validates the significance of the high 100-20's price levels as inflection points.  By far, prices bounce more there, either for better or worse, than anywhere else.

[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]

 As far as the daily tsy chart, AQ said something like we're still very much range-bound?  Well...  Here's your range...at least the mid term range.  To be fair we'd need to take that all the way up to 3.85%

[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]

 Just a bonus chart to show relative movement between MBS and tsy's.  We inverted the tsy yields so they would move in the same direction as PRICE for better comparison.

[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]

 Finally, the big Nasty: 10yr Treasury Futures Contracts... 

 From top to bottom and knowing that the teal is the price itself, we'll break down the techs

  1. red line is 200 day Moving average
  2. Orange is the 14 day.  Notice that every time prices have held above the 14 day MA for  more than a few days, that when they've fallen below, prices moved lower in subsequent days.
  3. MACD forest.  Can't get too far into detail in this space, but suffice it to say, the fact that there was "one big upside down mountain" followed just now by "one big upside up mountain" suggests at least some size of upside down mountain in our immediate future.  That = bearish for rates
  4. RSI.  Just threw this in for those who like it.  Suggestion: closer to overbought than oversold
  5. Bottom Section is Volume

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Everyone have a great long weekend...


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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Thursday, February 11, 2010

[MND NewsWire] - Freddie Mac to Purchase $71 Billion in Seriously Delinquent Loans

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Freddie Mac to Purchase $71 Billion in Seriously Delinquent Loans

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, February 10, 2010 2:43 PM

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Freddie Mac today announced it would purchase "substantially all" of the seriously delinquent loans (+120 days) from their fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage Participation Certificate (PC) securities.(These are the main MBS securities at Freddie Mac).

The company made the announcement Wednesday, saying that the decision to purchase the loans was a cost saving move based on criteria established in December 2007. 

At that time Freddie Mac said that it would, in the future, purchase loans that were 120 days or more delinquent at such time it was determined that the cost of guaranteeing payments to the holders of the securities, including advances of interest at the security coupon rate, exceeded the cost of holding the nonperforming loans in the company's mortgage related investment portfolio. 

Freddie Mac said that the delinquent loan purchases will help it preserve capital and reduce the amount of any additional draws from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The purchases would not affect Freddie Mac's activities under the Making Home Affordable Program.

On January 1, Freddie Mac adopted new accounting standards for transfers of financial assets and the consolidation of variable interest entities, FAS 166 and FAS 167. These changes triggered the rules put into effect in 2007. READ MORE. As a result, the cost of purchasing most delinquent loans from PCs and holding them in portfolio will be less than the cost of continued guarantee payments to security holders.

The purchase will be effective after the close of business on March 4.  Holders of the fixed-rate PCs will receive principal payments on March 15 and ARM PC holders will be paid on April 15.

As of December 31, Freddie Mac had:

  • 258,500 loans in it fixed-rate PC pools that were 120+ days delinquent. Unpaid principal totaled $49.8 billion
  •  72,894 in its adjustable-rate pools that were 120+ days  delinquent Unpaid principal totaled $19.1 billion

If Freddie Mac were to purchase "significantly all" of these, they would own $71.2 billion 120+ day in loans (including fixed rate 20s,40s, Balloons, and 4.0 coupons). This confirms fears that MBS investors should be expecting an increase in involuntary buyout related prepayment speeds.

Final purchasing decisions will be based on borrower activity through January 31 on applicable loans.

Starting in April, the company will disclose in its Monthly Volume Summary the number of loans in the PC pools that are 90 or more days delinquent in order to provide PC holders with additional information.

Freddie Mac will continue to review the economics of purchasing loans 120 days or more delinquent in the future and may reevaluate its delinquent loans purchase practices and alter them if circumstances warrant.

HERE are Freddie Mac PC Delinquency Rates

HERE is more technical perspective regarding the effect on prepayment speeds.


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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd

Monday, February 8, 2010

Market Update

Market Update

The bond market is down this morning, but is still near Friday’s seven week high for treasury yields.  The bond market experienced a “flight to quality” last week, as investors worried about oversea credit markets and scared off of equities by disappointing employment numbers loaded up on the safer bond market.  This week the economic data is a little sparser, today has no new reports and there is not data of much significance until Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and Retails Sales reports.  Wednesday Fed Chief Bernanke will speak before the House Financial Services at 10:00 am EST.  Also there are three auctions this week; the government will sell a total of $81 billion in 3-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities starting tomorrow. 

Daryl Hadd
Sr. Loan Officer

Cell 602-361-4110  E-Fax 877-298-2203

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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd