Friday, April 16, 2010

[MND NewsWire] - HAMP: Improved Conversion Rate Helps Boost Permanent Loan Mods in March

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HAMP: Improved Conversion Rate Helps Boost Permanent Loan Mods in March

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, April 15, 2010 8:41 AM

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Metrics for the Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) improved substantially during March according to data released late Wednesday by the Treasury Department.  The foreclosure prevention program, a joint effort by Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, has been widely criticized for its effectiveness in moving distressed borrowers into permanent loan modifications.

During the March, however, over 60,000 homeowners enrolled in the three month trial period required by the program were converted into permanent modifications. This brings the cumulative total of permanent loan modifcations to 230,801.  The March conversions represent a 15 percent increase over the 53,000 accomplished in February and a 3.5-fold rise in permanent modifications since the first of the year. An additional 108,000 permanent modifications are pending; most are awaiting approval from the borrower.

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In terms of the overall conversion rate, 16.1 percent of all offers extended have been converted to permanent loan modifications. Much improved from last month's rate of 12.6 percent. When measuring performance against the number of HAMP trial offers that have actually been accepted, 19.8 percent of homeowners who have completed the 3-month period have been converted to a permanent modification.  Again, much better than the 15.6 percent conversion rate reported in February.

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The number of homeowners entering the program, however, is declining as might reasonably be expected after the initial flood of applicants.  There were 57,000 new entrants into the program in March compared to 72,000 in February.  A total of 1.44 offers for modifications have been extended to borrowers and 1.17 million homeowners have started the trial modification program.

There was a large number of trial modifications cancelled during the month.  Since the program started in the spring of 2009, there have been a total of 155,000 cancellations, 66,500 of which were recorded in March.  The report provided no explanation for this number.  A total of 2,879 permanent modifications have been cancelled compared to 1,400 reported last month.  

Under HAMP, borrowers are offered a five year modification of their existing mortgage based on a debt to income ratio that cannot exceed 31 percent.  The servicers who administer the program can offer an extension of the loan term, a reduced interest rate, and/or a reduction of the principal balance.   100 percent of the modifications to date have included an interest rate reduction, 39 percent have involved an extension of the term of the loan and 28 percent have had some type of principal reduction or forbearance.   Servicers have been reluctant to offer forbearance to borrowers and HAMP has recently announced a new component of the program to encourage this method of modification.

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The HAMP report estimates that approximately 6 million residential mortgages are currently 60 days or more in arrears and that approximately 1.7 million of these are eligible for the HAMP program.  Servicers are encouraged to contact borrowers to request information regardless of their apparent eligibility.  To date servicers have sent out over four million solicitation letters.  

CitiMortgage and GMAC continue to be the most active participants in the program; both have nearly 50 percent of their estimated eligible borrowers enrolled in trial or permanent modifications.

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The reasons for delinquency as reported by the borrowers have remained relatively consistent over the life of the program; 59.1 percent report that their hardship was caused by a loss of income (a slight increase from 57.4 percent in February), 10.5 say it is excessive obligations and 2.8 percent report their delinquency was principally caused by the illness of the principal borrower. Combined with the fact that 44.1 percent of the 6.5 million unemployed Americans have been out of work for longer than six months, this statistic implies the true test of HAMP's success will be whether or not permanent loan modifications are able to avoid re-default.

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Monday, April 5, 2010

[MND NewsWire] - Pending Home Sales Confirm Increase in Buyer Demand Ahead of Tax Credit Expiration

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Pending Home Sales Confirm Increase in Buyer Demand Ahead of Tax Credit Expiration

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, April 05, 2010 1:42 PM

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The National Association of Realtors released Pending Home Sales data today.

A sale is listed as "pending" when a contract to purchase an existing home has been signed but the transaction has not closed. The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly pending home sales parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

From the release:

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January, and remains 17.3 percent above February 2009 when it was 83.2. The data reflects contracts signed, not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months after the home sales contract is signed.

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Regionally, the Midwest saw the biggest month over month uptick while the West extended its losing streak to five months.

  • The Northeast rose 9.0 percent to 77.7 and is 18.9 percent higher than February 2009
  • In the Midwest the index jumped 21.8 percent to 97.9 and is 18.7 percent above a year ago
  • In the South increased 9.2 percent to an index of 107.0 and is 17.5 percent higher than February 2009.
  • The West  fell 4.8 percent to 98.0 but is 14.6 percent above a year ago.

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Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist says:

“Anecdotally, we’re hearing about a rise of activity in recent weeks with ongoing reports of multiple offers in more markets, so the March data could demonstrate additional improvement from buyers responding to the tax credit,”

I am hearing the same anecdotal evidence the NAR is receiving. READ MORE

The chart below illustrates how Pending Home Sales (contracts signed) are a forward looking indicator of Existing Home Sales. The 8.2 percent rise in contracts signed implies we should see a modest increase in Existing Home Sales in the months to come, as long as there are no "hiccups" in the loan qualifying process that is...

I should point out that the modest rise in mortgage rates which has occured over the past two weeks will push a portion of March's Existing Home Sales into April.

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Yun adds:

“The rise in buyer contact activity may signal the early stages of a second surge of home sales this spring. The healthy gain hints home prices are continuing to flatten....We need a second surge to meaningfully draw down inventory and definitively stabilize home values.”

Plain and Simple: this is a key point in time for housing and the macroeconomic outlook. If housing is unable to gain recovery momentum before the tax credit expires, where will demand come from afterward?

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Posted via email from Daryl Hadd